Since 2017, the United States has orchestrated a fundamental reconfiguration of globalization—not de-globalization, but strategic fragmentation coupled with selective integration. Through control of critical technological nodes and standard-setting processes, the U.S. leverages asymmetric network positions ("weaponized interdependence") to redirect supply chains, establish geopolitically aligned rule-sets outside classical multilateral institutions, and consolidate allied blocs while fragmenting universal regulatory architecture. The analytical framework integrates regime-complex theory with economic security scholarship, examining how minilateral arrangements—coordinated among the U.S., Japan, Netherlands, and EU—function as strategic alternatives to WTO-centered multilateralism. Three empirical cases (2017–2025) represent the full spectrum of U.S. geoeconomic strategy: Semiconductors, where coordinated export controls have redirected $210 billion in global investment toward allied nations while closing critical production nodes to competitors. Critical minerals, where certification standards and mutual-recognition agreements reconfigure supply chains toward politically aligned producers. Climate-trade, where Buy Clean procurement standards generate carbon-border effects comparable to the EU's CBAM, institutionalizes climate preferences without a multilateral agreement. The paper's central finding is that standards create segmented integration—deep coordination within geopolitically selected coalitions producing systemic fragmentation. Three plausible 2030 outcomes emerge: (1) consolidation into stable quasi-blocs with parallel standards regimes; (2) limited compatibilization through targeted sectoral arrangements; or (3) deeper fragmentation with escalating compliance costs for firms navigating divergent standards. This work reveals how the United States has weaponized technical standards to rebuild a geopolitically aligned global order while fragmenting universal multilateralism—a model likely to persist across administrations and reshape international economic governance architecture.

Authors:
Anica Kovacevic, Institute of European Studies, Serbia

About the Presenter(s)
Ms. Anica Kovačević — Serbia-based PhD student and researcher at the Institute of European Studies. Focus: international relations, EU–US trade, geoeconomics. Current project: US-focused PhD on how US economic statecraft shapes the global economy.

Connect on Linkedin
https://www.linkedin.com/in/anica-kovacevic-8330841a8/

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