Objective: This study conceptualizes radicalization into extremism as a system of human dynamics shaped by social isolation, the inverse of social capital, and examines its progression through a computational model of population vulnerability. Focusing on the Rise Above Movement (RAM), a transnational white supremacist organization, the research introduces a qualitative theoretical framework that divides social isolation into two interrelated dimensions: personal isolation, referring to individual vulnerabilities that heighten susceptibility to recruitment, and controlled isolation, representing the organizational mechanisms through which groups segregate individuals from more diverse social interactions. Method: The dynamics model delineates population identity states, ranging from susceptible individuals to violent extremist actors, and simulates transitions driven by endogenous variables, such as perceived societal crisis and varying levels of social isolation. Results: Findings on RAM indicate that natural atrophy, changes in family structure, personal circumstances, or evolving worldviews, exert a greater influence on identity transformation than targeted intervention programs. Additionally, personal isolation factors have a more substantial effect on population-level behavior than the collective mechanisms of controlled isolation. Conclusions: Effective deterrence policies for deradicalization must consider multiple factors rather than relying on a single approach and should allow for more tailored prevention strategies. For at-risk individuals like RAM, these policies need to address the role of social isolation in extremism by reducing vulnerabilities caused by a lack of positive role models and challenging home environments.

Authors:
Samuel Carter, George Mason University, United States

About the Presenter(s)
Samuel O. Carter is a Ph.D. student in Computational Social Science at George Mason University, and his current research focuses on the sociological impacts of technology in everyday life and the complexity of the public policy ecosystem.

Connect on Linkedin
https://www.linkedin.com/in/samueloctaviuscarter/

Connect on ResearchGate
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Samuel-Carter-13?ev=hdr_xprf

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